"This latest data comes from a recent study, published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, which used a high-resolution climate modeling system to project bad news down to an impressively local level, examining what we might see in the 20 largest cities east of the Mississippi come the late 2050s.

"How Bad Will Climate Change Get for the Eastern U.S.?  Look at these Crazy Maps" by Emily Badger in The Atlantic Cities 12/19/12.  http://www.theatlanticcities.com/neighborhoods/2012/12/how-bad-will-clim...


Carolyn Caywood, LWV-SHR Virginia



Westerrn temperature change predictions

I appreciated seeing those predictions for the eastern US.  It"s impressive what can now be done with modeling.

At the University of California Los Angeles modelling is neary completed for the West in grids of about 4 square miles.  The model will provide predictions for  both temperature and precipitation.   The temperature element is already complete and the research group is now providing  temperature change predictions if requested  for specific locations.  For example, the following data shows the most likely temperature increase for Claremont, CA, where I live, will be about 4 degrees Fby 2050  without mitigation.and about 3 degrees  with mitigation.  (From other sources, precipitation is expected to increase during the next decade or so and then to decrease -- bad news for semi-arid regions of Southern California.)

If anyone whoi sees this  would like to request  temperature data for other western areas please feel free to write me at cf1allen@aol.com and I'll send the UCLA email address.

Freeman Allen


I am Fengpeng Sun. I am a researcher working with Prof. Alex Hall on the regional climate downscaling at UCLA. As requested by Alex, I am providing you the most likely warming and uncertainty estimates for Claremont, CA (lat:34.11, long:-117.72), for each season.  Here I provide you estimates under two different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios: RCP8.5 and RCP2.6.  All values below are in unit of Fahrenheit.

Under IPCC-AR5 RCP8.5 emissions scenario, a.k.a. business-as-usual emissions scenario, the surface air temperature warming in Claremont:

Fall (SON):
4.75+-2.93  (4.75 is the ensemble mean warming and 2.93 is the 95% confidence interval)

Winter (DJF):

Spring (MAM):

Summer (JJA):

Under IPCC-AR5 RCP2.6 emissions scenario, a.k.a. mitigation emissions scenario, the surface air temperature warming in Claremont:

Fall (SON):

Winter (DJF):

Spring (MAM):

Summer (JJA):

The relevant information on the scenarios could be found from our white paper published in  http://c-change.la/temperature/  and UCLA E-scholarship in  http://www.environment.ucla.edu/research/escholarship.asp.  Please feel free to let me and Prof. Hall know if you have any further questions